The Myth of Infinite Efficiency

There’s no absolute global decoupling of material consumption from economic growth—just some relative decoupling, and even that’s fading. The world economy is becoming more resource-intensive, not less. With all our technological advances, shouldn’t we be getting more efficient?! Apparently not—at least not at the global scale, which is what truly matters. Instead, we see re-coupling: the economy pulling material consumption right back up. The relative decoupling of 1970–1986 is gone. We’re in a phase of material intensification. Why? Once physical efficiency limits are reached, GDP growth simply drives resource use back up. James Hopeward’s highway analogy nails it: Economic growth is like accelerating on the highway—more speed, more fuel. Shifting gears improves efficiency, but once you hit 5th gear, there are no more gains. From there, any increase in speed demands more fuel. That’s where we are now. The efficiency phase has maxed out, and growth is burning through more and more resources. Decoupling isn’t a permanent fix; It’s temporary. And we’re still speeding toward ever-higher material consumption.

Based on: World GDP: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD and Domestic Extraction: https://www.resourcepanel.org/global-material-flows-database