The feeble decoupling of emissions from growth
Recent self-congratulatory absolute decoupling of emission from economic growth in high-income countries falls far short of meeting their fair share of the 1.5°C global carbon budget. The graph below shows actual data and future scenarios for consumption-based CO2 emissions (as percentages of 2022 levels) for 11 high-income countries that have achieved absolute decoupling, along with their population-weighted average. Dark grey lines represent data from the decoupling period (2013-2019), while light grey lines cover the recession and rebound period (2020-2022). Dashed red lines project future emissions under a continuation of the 2013-2019 GDP growth and decoupling rates (business as usual), while dashed blue lines depict emissions pathways that would keep these countries within their fair share of the global carbon budget, offering a 50% chance of limiting warming to 1.5°C (not great odds, but let’s go with it). Conclusions? At current rates, these countries would take over 200 years to approach zero emissions, emitting more than 27 times their fair share of the carbon budget! To meet the 1.5°C target while maintaining economic growth, decoupling rates would need to increase tenfold by 2025. Hypothetically, if these countries manage such an energy transition (against the odds), the world would quickly run up against mineral resource limits, leaving other countries without the resources needed for their own transition. Growth is the problem.