Running out of metals
The “green transition” is not green. Mining for essential minerals already inflicts significant environmental damage, and this damage will likely increase as extraction rates lag behind what is needed. For example, we need approximately 4.6 billion tonnes of copper to replace just one generation of renewable energy infrastructure. However, the current annual production is only around 24 million tonnes. At this rate, it would take about 190 years to achieve the necessary copper supply, which would require a significant increase in production and its associated environmental consequences. Compounding the issue, global copper reserves currently stand at about 880 million tonnes, enough for only 30 more years of production, covering just 19% of the requirement for one generation of renewable infrastructure. The situation is even more dire for other critical metals. While copper recycling rates are relatively high, they are insufficient for many other essential metals. The reference below delves deeper into these critical limitations.